Global Cannabis Industry 2026: Trends, Risks & Predictions
The oversupply equation
With Canadian operators holding vast stocks and having scaled up production capacity over the past year due to improved domestic prices and increased export demand, the combination of expanded production and potential demand contraction has raised concerns about global oversupply.
“As global producers continue to scale up while major import markets face potential near-term constraints on growth, oversupply is likely to become a common theme in the coming year,” said Lawrence Purkiss, Senior Analyst at Prohibition Partners.
Source: Statistics Canada, Prohibition Partners 2025
Khourdaji identified Thailand as a new force entering the international medical cannabis supply chain in 2026.
“The country benefits from abundant resources, an ideal climate for cultivation, and low operating costs,” he said. “The market is also witnessing a number of cultivators producing for medical exports. Together, these factors position Thailand as a potential major player in the global cannabis market.”
The future of flower
Ben Stevens, Editor of Business of Cannabis, notes that while raw flower remains king, 2026 could see its dominance begin to wane.
“As we continue to see a tightening of restrictions on medical cannabis frameworks throughout Europe, a lot of the negative attention is now being placed on flower as a category,” he said.
“In the UK, products transplanted directly from the North American adult-use markets into the private medical market are already drawing concern from regulators over their names and branding. Similarly, in Germany, Drug Commissioner Hendrik Streek recently suggested that banning flowers could be a route the government considered in its medical cannabis pushback. Meanwhile, emerging markets like France and Spain are launching without flower offered at all.”
Stevens suggests these dynamics will drive greater interest in alternative product formats. Purkiss delves further, suggesting France’s non-flower, pharmaceutically-focused plans could act as a new template for future reform.
“The launch of France’s new medical cannabis production and treatment structure has the potential to provide an alternative template for countries looking to establish medical cannabis frameworks within their healthcare systems,” he said.
“The French model is more integrated into the existing pharmaceutical production and clinical treatment landscape in the country than is the case in other large patient markets. It remains to be seen how quickly domestic production partnerships can create products which are acceptable for patients, doctors and regulators.”
Intoxicating hemp’s uncertain future
In the US, the intoxicating hemp market dominated the headlines in 2025, and presented a major threat to established medical and recreational businesses, concerned that these cheap and largely unregulated products would cannibalise their market dominance.
With a new federal ban passed at the end of the year, Stevens believes intoxicating hemp will continue to be a key policy topic in the coming months.
“While it’s impossible to predict what will happen in the sector, an area I am sure will continue to drive headlines is intoxicating hemp,” he said.
“The US ban, not set to come into force until late 2026, could yet be amended. In theory, this $30bn grey market would simply disappear overnight. In reality, thousands of manufacturers, importers, investors and consumers will now be looking for a new home.”
“Given the relative ease with which these semi-synthetic cannabinoids can be created, the growing number of Delta-9 THC alternatives, and the slow pace of effective regulations, I believe the genie is out of the bottle.”
UK: Steady growth, persistent gaps
Sarah Sinclair, Editor of Cannabis Health, expects continued but measured expansion in the UK market.
“Patient numbers will continue to grow steadily in the UK, and we’ll see more clinicians expressing interest in medical cannabis, but prescriber numbers will remain low compared to demand,” Sinclair said.
As with Germany and Australia, she expects some incoming regulatory pushback, though just like the UK’s comparative growth, more muted.
“While we await the findings of the ACMD review, I think we’ll see increased engagement from UK regulators such as the CQC and the General Pharmaceutical Council with the sector, as it faces greater scrutiny in line with growing patient numbers.”
Sinclair also highlighted emerging legal challenges around patient access. “As access expands, legal cases related to drug-driving offences and employment tribunals will also become more prevalent, and it will become harder for policymakers to ignore major gaps related to CBPMs, particularly in relation to driving and workplace drug-testing. How employers should manage this, and how to accurately measure impairment, will become an increasingly important part of the conversation, with some professional bodies in the occupational health space, for example, currently reported to be reviewing their guidelines.”
On product development, Sinclair added: “I hope to see more R&D focused on women and women’s health-related conditions, with more delivery formats developed that meet their needs and preferences. However, I don’t see anything major changing in terms of the growing demand for high-potency flower until more product formats become widely available.”
Marketing’s medical turn
The sector’s positioning and communications strategies are set to continue evolving away from lifestyle branding toward medical framing, according to Michael Hoban, Head of Marketing & Communications at Prohibition Partners.
“As the cannabis industry continues to mature at speed, marketing budgets will face heightened scrutiny throughout 2026,” Hoban noted.
“Maximising ROI has become a central priority for industry leaders and marketers alike, replacing the traditional ‘use it or lose it’ approach that once dominated budgeting cycles. Today, every pound or dollar spent must be supported by clear, measurable outcomes, making demonstrable ROI not just desirable—but essential for strategic decision-making and accelerated growth.”
He also expects the medical positioning to accelerate in tandem. “As more European countries expand medical cannabis programmes and patient access, the market will continue to lean more toward medicine and wellness, rather than lifestyle/recreational. Although this lean is already underway, next year there’ll be even more room for marketing to shift—from alternative medicine to part of standardised healthcare, reinforced by the latest clinical evidence, patient case studies, and prescriber education.”
As markets mature, Hoban believes narrative will play an increasing role in cannabis marketing.
“Putting people and their stories front and center creates a level of authenticity that truly resonates with audiences. By showcasing growers, patients, innovators, and community advocates, marketeers can highlight the real voices shaping the industry and build deeper emotional connections with their audience. These powerful narratives don’t just humanise a brand—they position a brand as a thought leader, elevating it far beyond being just another product on the shelf or another ancillary service.”
Rob Dale, Digital Marketing Manager at Prohibition Partners, noted that search behaviour reflects this medical shift.
“In 2026 Cannabis marketing and content will continue to move away from the ‘stoner’ content further towards science-based content,” Dale said.
“Search for casual terms such as ‘weed’ and ‘marijuana’ decrease, whilst ‘delta-9 THC’, ‘THCa’ and ‘CBN’ have seen massive growth and continue to become more popular.”
Dale also highlighted the impact of AI-powered search tools on industry content strategy. “AI search will ruin many brands who stick with the casual SEO strategy of dispensary near me or simply answering questions with no authority,” he said.
“With the introduction of AI search ‘About half of messages (49%) are “Asking,” a growing and highly rated category that shows people value ChatGPT most as an advisor rather than only for task completion.’ Most people are using this to ask questions and gain insights which means SEO strategy will be to create proprietary data and have expert sign off.”
